The Great British Bake Off - Season 16 Predictions
- Soraya Ladjili
- Oct 20, 2025
- 3 min read
If you are not already familiar with the Great British Bake Off, let me introduce you to the
finest television Britain has to offer.
To sum it up, 12 home-bakers of all ages and from different backgrounds compete
against each other, with one elimination each week. Every week tests a different type of
skill, from pastry to meringue, through 3 distinct challenges:
- Firstly, the signature bake is meant to showcase the bakers’ unique abilities and
tastes within the week’s theme.
- Next is the technical, where every baker works from the same recipe and the
same ingredients. Their bakes are then blind judged by Paul Hollywood and Prue
Leith, and the finished products are then ranked worst to best.
- Finally, the showstopper. The showstopper is the grandest and most complex
challenge of them all. The bakers must produce a “show-stopping” piece that
must be visually stunning as well as delicious.
As of October 17th, we are in week 7, and with the quarterfinals approaching, the
stakes are only rising for our bakers.
If you’re trying to avoid spoilers for this season, I caution you to read no further! If you’re
like me and you stop everything to watch the new episode every Friday and are up to
date, I’d like to share my thoughts on this year’s season thus far.
At the top of the pyramid, we have Jasmine! She is my predicted winner this year, as
her neat and flavorful bakes have earned her three Star Baker awards, making her the
only contestant to have earned more than one this year. This can be attributed to
Jasmine’s consistency. She has won three technical awards, multiple Hollywood
Handshakes (one of which was left-handed, but a handshake none the less!). I believe
they were very much deserved, I mean look at her “Flower Crown Sweet Bread”!
Jasmine's confidence, calm vibe, and consistent bakes demonstrate her potential to
win.
Secondly, I would place Tom at the top. His bakes only seem to improve every week,
apart from a shaky pastry week. His ‘Cinnamon Tower Sweet Bread’ from episode 3 is
my favorite bake of his by far. I’m a sucker for anything autumnal, so while this piece
didn’t win him Star Baker, the judges loved his cozy combination of orange cinnamon
and pecan. As someone who has tried and failed multiple times to make cinnamon rolls
from scratch, I was impressed by how light and fluffy he kept the dough.
Lastly, Iain and Aaron tied for third place in my ranking. You might already recognize Iain from Instagram or TikTok, where he has over 780k followers across the platforms. His popularity can be attributed to his artistic loaves of bread over which he paints intricate designs, ranging from album covers to portraits.
Iain won many of us over after performing the greatest comeback in Bake Off history,
saving a collapsing cake just in time to present a totally transformed showstopper. His resilience and positive energy, as well as his artistic skills, make him a unique and
strong contestant.
On the other hand, there is Aaron, who is a bit of an underdog this season. Always the
bridesmaid, Aaron has come second multiple times in the technical and always seems
close to winning Star Baker but is never quite the bride. Aaron and Tom have a fun little
rivalry, as Tom usually seems to one-up Aaron and get the wins. For example, they both
made very similar signature bakes on week 6: fake coffee cups with tiramisu inside.
While Aaron’s were great, Tom’s were stellar, earning him a Hollywood Handshake.
This dynamic shifted with Aaron’s Star Baker win on week 6, as he channeled his inner
architect to produce an intricate chocolate piano.
Aaron’s playful attitude and determination make him a compelling contestant.
Full disclaimer, my predictions were wrong last year – I think a lot of us expected Dylan
to win – but no matter who wins Bake Off, every baker learns from the experience, and
the unpredictability makes it even more entertaining to watch.
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