Putin's New Nuclear Doctrine

Russia has recently lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike in Ukraine in an official decree published by the Kremlin, signaling a shift away from its Cold War doctrine of nuclear deterrence. This latest development in Russian military policy is a stark warning to the West over its aid of the Ukrainian war effort, and it may very well be an early step in the use of the first nuclear weapon since the US bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

Since September, Russia has been warning that if Ukraine continued to launch missiles made in NATO countries like the U.S, France, and the U.K, it would consider those NATO states as directly involved in the conflict. Putin has gone as far to assert that if NATO countries supplied Ukraine with longer range weapons capable of striking deep inside of Russian territory, it would put NATO at war with Russia. Two days following US President Joe Biden’s approval of Ukraine’s launching of U.S-manufactured ATACMS missiles deep into Russian, the Kremlin has expressed a bleak position, claiming that it will not be hesitant to deploy nuclear weapons in the case of significant threat to its survival. Russia perceives the Biden administration’s decision of lifting its years-long prohibition of these far-reaching missiles is an act of escalation. 

On November 19th, a date which marked the 1,000th day since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that an attack on Russia or its Eastern European ally, Belarus, would be met with nuclear retaliation. A conventional attack by non-nuclear Ukraine that is supported by a nuclear power on either of these countries would be considered as a joint attack; such an attack could merit a nuclear strike on the basis that it poses “a critical threat to their sovereignty and (or) their territorial integrity", according to the Kremlin. Though the grounds for a nuclear response in this decree are deliberately vague, Russia is sending a very clear message to Ukraine’s allies: do not continue providing far-reaching weapons to Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin at a meeting with Yevgeny Balitsky, Moscow-installed governor of the Russian- controlled parts of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region (not pictured), amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia November 18, 2024. Sputnik/Vyacheslav Prokofyev/Pool via REUTERS.

Moscow's threats of nuclear attack do not stand unsupported. In 2024, Russia has amped up its number of nuclear exercises to prepare for what it claims would be a response to a first strike. Earlier in 2024, Putin ordered a tactical nuclear weapons drill in response to French President Macron’s hint at the possibility of sending French troops to Ukraine. Moreover, Russia has stationed nuclear missiles in neighboring Belarus, which shares a northern border with Ukraine, and with which it has also conducted joint military attacks.

The increasing threat of Russia deploying nuclear power is not just a muscle show: on November 22nd, following the decree of its new nuclear doctrine, Russia launched ballistic missiles with multiple warheads into Ukraine. These highly destructive ballistic missiles are nuclear-capable and have never before been used in combat. Their use is concerning because not only can they be used in the future to launch nuclear weapons with greater precision and speed, but it goes directly against the doctrine of deterrence. Ballistic missiles have historically been the backbone of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) because if, following a nuclear attack, a few missiles remained, the power that launched the first strike would be likewise destroyed. Russia has demonstrated that it is unafraid of deploying these missiles into Ukraine, which worries many experts because it indicates that deterrence may be losing its footing and reducing crisis stability. On the other hand, however, Russia has emphasized that the very purpose of its new military doctrine is deterrence. 

Parts of a ballistic missile, which Russia used in a strike towards Dnipro city this week, are displayed, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, at an undisclosed location in Ukraine November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko/File Photo

Ultimately, Putin is at the head of Russia’s military, so whether Russia strikes with a nuclear weapon is entirely up to his discretion, a sobering reality for Western leaders. His nuclear declaration may be seen as an empty threat to most Western countries, but it certainly makes Russia's nuclear determination more credible. 

Sources:

Faulconbridge, Guy and Kolodyazhnyy, Anton, November 19 2024, “Putin issues warning to United States with new nuclear doctrine”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-issues-warning-us-with-new-nuclear-doctrine-2024-11-19/. 

Chernova, Anna, et al, November 19 2024, “Putin fine-tunes Russia’s nuclear doctrine after Biden’s arms decision on Ukraine, in clear signal to West”, CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/europe/putin-russia-update-nuclear-doctrine-ukraine-intl/index.html. 

Lendon, Brad, November 22 2024, “Russia’s use of a nuclear-capable missile is a clear departure from Cold War doctrine of deterrence”, CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/22/europe/russia-mirv-deterrence-analysis-intl-hnk-ml/index.html. 

Faulconbridge, Guy and Kolodyazhnyy, Anton, October 29 2024, “Russia test-fires missiles to simulate 'massive' response to nuclear first strike”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-orders-strategic-nuclear-training-exercise-2024-10-29/. 

Seibt, Sébastien, September 26 2024, “Vladimir Poutine et la menace nucléaire : des mots, rien que des mots ?”, France 24, https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240927-vladimir-putin-nuclear-weapons-declaration-more-than-an-empty-threat-ukraine-nato-us-war. 

Chitty, Abby, October 30 2024, “Russia launches extensive nuclear weapons exercises simulating retaliatory strikes”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/2024/10/30/russia-launches-extensive-nuclear-weapons-exercises-simulating-retaliatory-strikes.